Take a closer look at the Florida and Wisconsin polls.
This is around the time when convention bounces begin to wane. It’s still too early to say whether President Trump’s rebound will fade or endure, but Tuesday was certainly the best day for Joe Biden’s state polls after the Republican National Congress.
Best news for Biden after a while in Florida. A poll from Monmouth University found that Mr Biden increased by an average of four percentage points among potential voters, the best result from a non-partisan, face-to-face interviewer in a matter of weeks. He held a broad position in Florida over the summer, but it gradually slipped, in part due to a somewhat surprising weakness among Latino voters. A Monmouth poll today shows no signs of this weakness, and Mr Biden leads the ballot by 26 voters, compared to Hillary Clinton’s performance four years ago. If Mr Biden can compare Mrs Clinton among Spanish voters, he will be in a strong position: polls consistently show that Mr Biden is ahead of Mrs Clinton among white voters.
It is not easy now to gauge the support of Spanish voters in Florida. About a third of the state’s Spanish voters are Cubans, and they are mostly concentrated in the Miami district, the most difficult district in the state to reach in the poll. Those voters, as a group, abstain from Republicans. But the other two-thirds are highly democratic and live across the state. In addition, Spanish voters are generally harder to reach. They are younger and concentrated in cities, so many speak Spanish as their first language, which poses additional difficulties and costs for survey participants.
I will say it all: In Florida, a lot will depend on how survey participants can measure a relatively small group of hard-to-reach voters. So interpret any single result among Latin voters with caution, especially in Florida.
Another poll shows Trump is lagging behind in Wisconsin. One place where polls provided the president with consistently bad news is Wisconsin, where Mr. Biden has consistently held a leadership position. Today, a CNN / USSR poll added to the consensus by showing Mr. Biden 10 points, which is one of his biggest leaders in this cycle. The company also gave Mr Biden a three-point lead in North Carolina, another result consistent with the former vice president’s clear national advantage. One caveat note: CNN / USSR polls tended to tilt to the left compared to the average of this cycle, also in 2018, polls.
We expect another Wisconsin poll from ABC News / Washington Post tomorrow. If he joins a club of high-quality survey participants showing an advantage of at least five or six points, Mr. For Biden, that would give you about as clear a picture of how you’re going to get on the battlefield so far. elections.
A stable day across the country. There weren’t many national polls today, but the handful we received were broadly in line with their previous results and a fairly stable race.
Residues Mr Biden in Minnesota at Morning Consult had relatively poor results, although there are many other recent surveys showing Mr Biden leading the way. The Atlantic University of Florida has shown equal competition in Florida, although the company does not have many achievements and its methodology is mixed. The Commonwealth University of Virginia gave Biden a two-digit leadership in Virginia.